Public Policies and Economic Performance: A Misesian and Hayekian View

In 1927, at the height of the Roaring 20s, the renowned Austrian economist,
Ludwig von Mises wrote in his classic work, Liberalism:
“Whoever does not deliberately close his
eyes to the facts must recognize everywhere the signs of an approaching
catastrophe in world economy. Antiliberalism is heading toward a general
collapse of civilization.”[1]
Within months of his writing this, the world economy had begun to sink into
depression and within a few years World War II had begun.
It is interesting to note that Mises did not say that economic collapse was to
be caused by poor monetary policy, or excessive taxes, or a drop in consumer
demand. It was to be caused by “anti-liberal” philosophy. Just
exactly what did he mean by this? He meant the rise of a belief in central
planning and government intervention in its various forms—such as fascism in
Germany, Spain and Italy, socialism in Russia and Great Britain, and the
Progressive movement in the United States. This turning away from the
predominant belief in what was then called liberalism, away from a political
philosophy consistent with market capitalism, is what will cause the economic
collapse. Essentially Mises makes the argument that the system by which we
organize our economic activity, and thus the type of public policy that we
follow, is the primary determinant of the economic performance.
First, we need to see why market capitalism creates wealth for the
masses. The case is a straightforward logical argument. Market capitalism
is a system based on voluntary exchange. When you go to the Wal-Mart they
don’t start throwing things in your basket and make you pay for them at the
checkout line. Nor can you place things in your basket and then offer the
clerk $5 for the lot and walk out. Wal-Mart tells you how much it is willing to
take for a product, say a hammer. It will be clearly marked—perhaps $4.98. If
you are willing to give Wal-Mart $4.98 it is willing to give you the
hammer.
Nor do you see Wal-Mart vans driving down the street grabbing people and taking
them back to the store to work as clerks. The clerks are there because
they are willing to voluntarily give their labor in exchange for the wages
Wal-Mart pays them. Wal-Mart is not forced to pay their clerks the amount
that the clerks force upon them. Every worker at Wal-Mart is engaged in a
voluntary exchange with Wal-Mart, as is every customer. All parties must
have agreed to the exchange or it would not be taking place. That is why
the Wal-Mart symbol is the smiley face—everyone at Wal-Mart is making
themselves happier than they would otherwise be.
From this we know that all producers must have paid resource owners, the owners
of labor, of steel, of land, of any resource, an amount greater than those
owners could have received somewhere else. This value is what economists
call the opportunity cost of resources—its value in its next best alternative. If
Ford Motor Company buys a ton of steel for $100, then that steel could not have
produced $100 of value for some other producer or that producer would have
purchased it.
What must Ford Motor Company do with that steel? It must turn it into a
product that consumers value more than $100 or Ford will go out of
business. Ford Motor Company cannot use up $1 billion in resources in
order to produce products that consumers are only willing to pay $900 million
for. One cannot lose money on every unit and make it up in volume,
although General Motors seems to have tried that technique. One of the
roles of profit in a market capitalist system is to ensure that only those
firms who make the most efficient use of resources stay in business and get and
maintain control of resources.
The logic of this argument makes it clear that market capitalism, private
ownership of property and voluntary exchange, must be the most productive means
of organizing resources. Producers must pay for resources their value in
their next best alternative and then produce with them something that consumers
value even more or go out of business. It is difficult to think of a
system that makes more efficient use of resources.
Why cannot socialism or any other form of central planning create wealth for
the masses? There are two primary reasons: one is an incentive problem, and the
other is an information problem. The incentive problem is how you get people to
work hard and more importantly to innovate. As Adam Smith in 1776 put it:
“But man has almost constant occasion for
the help of his brethren, and it is in vain for him to expect it from their
benevolence only. He will be more likely to prevail if he can interest
their self-love in his favour, and shew them that it is for their own advantage
to do for him what he requires of them. Whoever offers to another a
bargain of any kind, proposes to do this. Give me that which I want, and you
shall have this which you want, is the meaning of every such offer; and it
is this manner that we obtain from one another the far greater part of
those good offices which we stand in need of. It is not from the
benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our
dinner, but from their regard for their own interest.”[2]
Smith was describing the market capitalist system that was beginning to
dominate the British Empire. The market capitalist system relies upon
incentives created by voluntary exchange and property rights to induce
producers to take risks and put resources together to produce consumer goods.
It also is the driving force for innovation, and it is innovation that has
created wealth for the masses in those countries that have market-based
economies. We are not wealthier today because we have more wheat than people in
the Middle Ages. We have lots of goods and services that didn’t exist
then. In fact, it is unlikely that any of us would trade places with a 13th-century
king. We would prefer indoor plumbing, electricity, color television, and
refrigerators to living in a castle and eating dried mutton.
How does one get people to innovate in a system of central planning without
profit and prices? Socialism can only use persuasion or rely upon the
benevolent butcher. Now Adam Smith did not say he would never find a
benevolent butcher. Some people will work hard and will innovate despite
little incentive for them to do so. The father of Beauty in the Disney
movie, Beauty and the Beast, is a tinkerer and invents things; though he
obviously is not living in a market capitalist system (magic castles and beasts
turning into princes are not distinguishing characteristics of market
capitalism). There was some innovation in feudalism and mercantilism, and
there is some innovation in socialist systems. But these systems do not,
as a system, drive and encourage innovation. I do not recall my mother
telling me how she longed for the latest Soviet washing machine, nor my dad
wishing he could be driving an Eastern European car. Market capitalism, on
the other hand, does drive innovation because profits can be earned by the
innovator. Steve Jobs, Michael Dell, and Bill Gates were able to become
wealthy because of the profits they made by making products and services that
make our life easier. Their example provides the incentive for the person who
is at this very moment thinking of how she can make something that will make my
life easier and enable her to become wealthy in the process.
The other major problem that plagues central planning is the information
problem. How can a central planner possibly know how many rolls of toilet
paper will be needed at every moment in time by 1.3 billion Chinese, or how
much dental floss 300 million Americans want each Tuesday? Leonard Read wrote
his famous paper, “I, Pencil,” in the 1958 issue of The Freeman, [3] which Milton and Rose Friedman included
it in their 1979 book, Free to Choose. [4] In an insightful way Read describes all
the social coordination that is required to simply produce a simple
pencil. The paper’s insight is that it requires the reader to observe how
much information must be exchanged to produce something as elementary as a
pencil. The parts of a pencil come from all over the world, and it makes
us realize that no one person could produce a pencil. But we can go
beyond that, and begin to think about how a central planner could possibly even
allocate pencils correctly. The fundamental problem is that information is so
decentralized. Millions, billions world-wide, of individuals have their
own needs and desires and constraints on their choices. No planner can
possibly garner and process all of that information.
Just imagine that you were the Secretary of Pencils in the President’s cabinet
and your job was to make sure that each one of all the thousands of retail
establishments throughout in the United States had exactly the right amount of
pencils, even if the pencils were magically brought into existence. Your
intuition is correct – there would be lots of places with excess pencils and
lots with pencil shortages. Yet every morning you wake up and New York
City magically has the right amount of orange juice, coffee, bread, auto
repairs, gasoline, and every other product and service, with no one in
charge.
Mises would point out that the reason it works out this way is exactly because
no one is in charge. Instead, the price system works to make sure that the
right amount of everything is available in every place in America at every
moment in time. We intuitively know how this works. If there are more
Chevrolet pickups at Frank Beck’s Chevrolet in Hillsdale than consumers want
and pickups begin to pile up at Frank Beck’s place, then we are likely to see
“a sale,” meaning the price will fall. And as prices fall, then consumers
will purchase more and the producers will produce less—in this case, Frank
won’t supply so many pickups. This will continue until the demand for
pickups equals the supply of pickups. If there is a shortage of some good, then
the opposite occurs. The producer will raise the price, so fewer people
will purchase it, and as the price rises more will be produced by the
producer. Prices in a market capitalist system act to bring together the
demand for and supply of all goods and services, which is why you didn’t wake
up today wondering if there would be enough coffee at all the Starbuck’s stores
in America. This is a marvel. As Hayek put it in his 1945 paper, “The Use
of Knowledge in Society:”
“I am convinced that if it (the price
system) were the result of deliberate human design, and if the people guided by
the price changes understood that their decisions have significance far beyond
their immediate aim, this mechanism would have been acclaimed as one of the
greatest triumphs of the human mind.”[5]
Central planners cannot know how consumers value relatively all of the
resources in a modern economy. How can they tell if cotton is more
valuable in the production of tee shirts, underwear, or socks? In a market
capitalist system this happens through the price and profit system. If
consumers decide they want more cotton underwear, then the price of underwear
will begin to rise, this will cause more production of underwear by existing
firms and the profit coming from the production of underwear will eventually
attract more firms into the production of underwear. Cotton will thus move
out of the production of tee shirts and into the production of underwear without
a Minister of Undergarments guiding the process.
The logic of the argument should be persuasive that market capitalism is the
most efficient system for producing goods and services for all and as a system
will drive innovation. It should also be persuasive that a system of
central planning cannot make efficient use of resources, nor can it lead to
innovation in the production of goods and services for the masses. The
evidence in support of this is also obvious.
The wealth of the average individual in a market capitalist society would have
been beyond the comprehension of anyone living under the feudal system. A
person living in 1250 in Europe would be living a life pretty much like the
person living there 100 years prior, and would presume that someone living 100
years later would have a very similar lifestyle. Yet look around you today
and simply observe how many of the goods and services you will consume that did
not exist even twenty years ago. When I was in college, if you wanted to
call someone you had to stand next to the phone. If they had zeros in their
phone number, your inclination was not to call them. Today our cell phones can
do everything but make us tuna casserole. People in India who live in villages
fifty miles from the nearest health clinic can call the clinic and find out
when the doctor is going to be there before walking the fifty miles. This is
the power of the market system.
Again, to put this in perspective. It took 6000 years from the invention
of the wheel until we developed the two wheel cart. When we watch The Ten Commandments on television, we
see Moses parting the Red Sea to let the Israelites escape from the Pharaoh’s
army, which is riding in two-wheel carts. From the time of Moses to Wyatt
Earp we move from two-wheel carts to four-wheel carts—buckboards and
stagecoaches. Yet Wyatt Earp, who is an adult when he participates in the
gunfight at the OK corral, sees the movement from four wheel-carts to motion
pictures and the Model T. My grandmothers were born before man had ever
seen powered flight, yet lived to see a time when you could buy a ride on a
spaceship. The rapid increase in innovation and the wealth of the masses
occurred because the West gradually developed the economic system of market
capitalism and a political system consistent with that.
One can use either the Index of Economic Freedom published by the
Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal or the Economic
Freedom Index published by the Fraser Institute. It become
immediately obvious that the countries that have the most economic freedom,
that rely most on market capitalism as their economic system, are the
wealthiest countries, and those that have the least amount of economic freedom,
that are farthest removed from market capitalism, are where people are the most
impoverished. The Heritage Foundation report includes a chart that
demonstrates the strong correlation (correlation coefficient of .667) between
economic freedom and per capita GDP.[6] A simple
listing of the top 10 countries and the bottom 10 countries in the Index of
Economic Freedom is persuasive.
Top 10: Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Switzerland,
Canada, United States, Denmark, Chile
Bottom 10: Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic, Guyana, Angola,
Lesotho, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Uzbekistan, Chad, Burundi
As an experiment to test your belief of whether market capitalism produces
wealth for the poor, let’s pretend that I am God, and you are about to be born
into the world. I tell you that you can choose whatever country you would
like to be born into, but the stipulation is that you will be the poorest
person in the economy. You know that your answer will be to place you in a
country that primarily relies on market capitalism to organize its resources.
Robert Rector has published two papers that tell us what it means to be poor in
the United States.[7]
Of those classified as poor by the United State Census Bureau, about the bottom
12% of the income distribution, 46 percent own their own homes, which is on
average a three-bedroom house with one-and-one-half baths; 76 percent have air
conditioning; nearly three-quarters of poor households own a car, and about a
third own two or more cars; 97 percent have a color television. Contrast
this with what it means to be poor in Mumbai, where some families have to sleep
on their side for all of them to fit into their living space.
North and South Korea are a stark example of the difference in economic
development that results from central planning and capitalism. East and
West Germany were examples from the past. More than 400 million people have
moved out of poverty since China began its experiment with moving to market
capitalism from communism. The empirical evidence is overwhelming that
market capitalism creates wealth for the masses and central planning cannot.
A lesson for Americans from this is that public policies have an enormous
influence on economic performance. Those policies that interfere in the
economic system of market capitalism, policies that move the allocation of
resources away from the system of voluntary exchange and towards a system of
government planning, will reduce economic performance. Unfortunately, the
public policies have been moving us in the direction of central planning and
away from market capitalism—reminiscent of what Mises observed more than 80
years ago.
The United States dropped two spots in the 2010 Index of Economic Freedom. We
have witnessed massive government intervention in the auto industry, finance
industry, and housing industry in the past two years. The current
administration is attempting to drastically increase government intervention in
both the health industry and the energy markets. These policies have
increased the uncertainty of property rights and have substituted government
planning for market forces in the economy. The logic of how price systems
and profit incentives are a powerful force for driving economic growth and how
central planning cannot efficiently coordinate the activity of millions of
persons in a modern economy should warn us of the dangers of the direction our
public policy is taking.
Public policies that protect property rights and create certainty about the
rule of law will allow the marvel of the market capitalist system and the
ingenuity of Americans to set us on the path for further economic
growth. These policies will not be possible politically until people
understand how the market process works and how interfering in this process
through government policies will reduce economic wealth. As Hayek put it
in The Fatal Conceit, “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate
to men how little they know about what they imagine they design.”[8]
Notes
[1] Ludwig von Mises, Liberalism In the Classical Tradition, 3rd Edition (San Francisco: Cobden Press, 1985 (1927)), pg. 3.
[2] Adam Smith, An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, (Indianapolis: Liberty Classics, 1981 (1776)Book I, pg. 27
[3] Leonard Read, “I, Pencil,” The Freeman, December 1958: pp. 32-37.
[4] Milton and Rose Friedman, Free to Choose (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1980) pp. 11-12.
[5] Friedrich Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” The American Economic Review, Sept. 1945, pg. 527
[6] 2010 Index of Economic Freedom, The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal, Executive Summary, pg. 2.
[7] Robert Rector and Kirk Johnson, “Understanding Poverty in America,” The Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder No. 1713, January 5, 2004
[8] Hayek, The Fatal Conceit (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988) pg. 76.
Gary Wolfram is William E. Simon Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Hillsdale College, President of Hillsdale Policy Group, a consulting firm specializing in taxation and policy analysis, and Chairman of the Michigan Alliance for Competitive Energy. He was a member and former Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Lake Superior State University, served as a member of Michigan's State Board of Education from 1993 to 1999, was Chairman of the Headlee Amendment Blue Ribbon Commission and has been a member of the Michigan Enterprise Zone Authority, the Michigan Strategic Fund Board, and the Michigan State Housing Development Authority Board. Dr. Wolfram's public policy experience includes serving as Congressman Nick Smith's Chief of Staff, Michigan’s Deputy State Treasurer for Taxation and Economic Policy under Governor John Engler, and Senior Economist to the Republican Senate in Michigan. Professor Wolfram graduated summa cum laude from the University of California at Santa Barbara. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley and has taught at several colleges and universities, including Mount Holyoke College, The University of Michigan, and Washington State University. He is a regular contributor to Human Events and The Detroit News. His publications include Towards a Free Society: An Introduction to Markets and the Political System, and several works on public policy issues. He was named Hillsdale College’s Professor of the Year for 2004. Michigan Runner Magazine also named him one of the top 25 runners in Michigan of the past 25 years.
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