Floyd Norris writes for the New York Times that it's
1980 all over again.
Discussion of gold has gone from
nonexistent a decade ago to the question of whether its price is in bubble
territory, and now a policy question in the Republican primary. Ron Paul has
been stumping for a return to the gold standard for decades, and the populace
has finally caught up.
The issue resonates with young
people who worry about a dire future with a dollar crash and nationwide
poverty. The gold issue is hot enough that Newt Gingrich has promised to
appoint a gold commission, with The Case for Gold coauthor Lewis Lehrman and
Jim Grant as cochairman.
When Ronald Reagan went through the
gold commission charade in 1981 to satisfy a campaign promise of studying the
gold standard question, Lehrman cast one of two dissenting votes on the
commission that voted in favor of maintaining the fiat money status quo. The
other "no" vote came from Ron Paul himself. As Murray Rothbard explained,
The gold standard was the easiest
pledge to dispose of. President Reagan appointed an allegedly impartial gold
commission to study the problem — a commission overwhelmingly packed with
lifelong opponents of gold. The commission presented its predictable report,
and gold was quickly interred.
In similar fashion, Norris and the NYT
look to explore the worthiness of a gold standard by citing a University of Chicago survey of 37 economists
asking if they agreed that "price-stability and employment outcomes would
be better for the average American" if the dollar's value were tied to
gold.
Norris makes a point that among the
37 were advisers to both Democratic and Republican presidents. As if this
insured some sort of impartiality. Like Captain
Renault in Casablanca, you will be shocked — shocked! — to know that
all 37 of the esteemed economists polled think a gold standard is a terrible
idea.
The first statement the 37
economists responded to was
If the US replaced its discretionary
monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a
specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes
would be better for the average American.
Those disagreeing were 43 percent
and those strongly disagreeing were the other 57 percent.
With their answers, the responders
also provided a one to ten degree of confidence in their opinion. Most were
highly confident in their positions. The Ivy League is well represented with
nearly half the panel coming from Yale, Harvard, or Princeton. Berkeley and
Stanford combined for ten on the panel and the supposedly free-market Chicago
had five representatives, as did MIT.
Anil K. Kashyap is a professor of
economics and finance at Chicago and used the survey to make this snide remark:
"A gold standard regime would be a disaster for any large advanced
economy. Love of the G.S. implies macroeconomic illiteracy."
According to his webpage Professor Kashyap is currently teaching
these two advanced MBA elective classes: "Analyzing Financial Crises"
and "Understanding Central Banks." But Kashyap is plenty busy off
campus. He's a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member
of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He does
work for the government of Japan and, well, you get the idea.
Former Obama economic advisor Austan Goolsbee, also a professor at Chicago,
seems downright annoyed by the gold questions, saying, "eesh. Has it come
to this?"
One wonders how MIT's Bengt
Holmstöm makes this judgment: "All insights from the past and
current crises go against a gold standard."
To the contrary, history shows that
with a gold standard there are fewer crises; and when there are crises they are
short-lived, as in the case of the panics of 1819, 1873, and 1920. Since the
last remnants of the gold standard were cast aside by Nixon in 1971, world
economies have been a series of booms, busts, inflations, economic instability,
with no real economic growth.
"This proposal makes no sense
in the modern world," says Yale's William Nordhaus. "Just look at the Eurozone
to see the consequences." Surely the good professor doesn't think Europe
is currently on the gold standard. But assuming he equates the fiat euro with a
gold-backed euro, Professor Nordhaus should read Philipp Bagus's The Tragedy of the Euro. Bagus points out
that member states of the European Union run deficits expecting them to be
financed by the ECB. So Europe has a tragedy of the commons at work with its
monetary policy that sets up very dangerous incentives for member states,
making the system unworkable.
Governments cannot print prosperity,
and capital must be saved — it cannot be conjured from the ether.
A number of professors on the panel
made comments to the effect that the price of gold is too volatile or unstable
to back the dollar. Evidently it doesn't occur to them that it's not the price
of gold that's volatile but the value of the dollar. The value of the dollar is
volatile downward for the very reason that the Fed can create dollars from
nowhere; evidenced by the M2 money supply increasing from $683.7 billion in
August 1971 to the current $9,712.8 billion.
Creating paper and digits is cheap
and effortless. Mining gold is anything but. It's expensive and the yellow
metal is quite hard to find. Grant's Interest Rate Observer points out that,
according to the US Geological Survey, the world supply of gold has increased
at rate of only 1.7 percent a year from 1900 through 2009.
Granted, it hasn't been a steady 1.7
percent growth. Production boomed in the 1930s, for instance, but since the
2000s, growth has declined to 1.1 percent. However, as Grant points out,
Still, over the long run, the
co-commissioners [Grant and Lehrman] agree, the Newmonts and the Barricks of
the world are more dependable sources of monetary matter than the Federal
Reserves of the world.
Behavioral economist Richard Thaler asks, "Why tie to gold? Why
not 1982 Bordeaux?" Assuming Professor Thaler is being serious, wine
doesn't make a terribly good money, although it might do better than our
present paper system. After all, a number of things have been used as money
throughout history: salt, sugar, cattle, iron hoes, tea, cowrie shells,
and even cigarettes in prison camps.
Ultimately the commodity that is
selected by the marketplace to be money will have these characteristics:
generally marketable, divisible, high value per unit weight, fairly stable
value, durable, recognizable, and homogeneous.
Thaler's 1982 Bordeaux flunks most
of the test. While it's divisible, wine is anything but durable, certainly not
homogeneous, and hauling Bordeaux around by the bottle or barrel would not be
handy in this (as the professors like to say) modern world.
It's hard to make a case that 1982
Bordeaux is generally marketable, but having a bottle to trade with might serve
you well in certain situations. Value would vary widely due to weather and
harvests on the supply side and consumer preference on the demand side. This
leads us to the problem that, in some parts of the world and for some people,
wine — whether it's 1982 Bordeaux or Two Buck Chuck — is not recognized as
having any value at all.
Meanwhile, the yellow metal passes
the test with flying colors.
The second statement posed to the
panel was, "There are many factors besides US inflation risk that
influence the current dollar price of gold."
To this question 73 percent strongly
agreed and 27 percent simply agreed.
MIT's Daron
Acemoglu strongly agreed with this statement and commented,
"Gold is intrinsically close to useless, so its price is determined as a
'bubble.'" Gold has been used for thousands of years as a medium of
exchange and store of value. It's jaw-dropping to know a professor at MIT
believes gold is useless. In fact it is the dollar and US Treasury debt that
are the greatest bubbles the world has ever seen.
Professor Nordhaus also strongly
agreed and wrote, "There is no discernible connection between gold price
and CPI movements in the period since the demonetization of gold in 1971."
Really? This chart plotting the price of gold and CPI
portrays a strong connection.

The connection reflected by the
chart would be even stronger if John Williams's shadowstats SGS-CPI were used instead of the BLS's
hedonically adjusted numbers.
LBJ's guns-and-butter policy of the
1960s combined with Nixon's big-government conservatism, each facilitated by a
compliant Fed, led to Nixon's unshackling the dollar from its last faint gold
restraint. The resulting stagflation of the 1970s brought on the cry to return
the dollar to gold.
Bush and Obama's drones-and-caviar policy makes LBJ and Nixon look like rock-ribbed fiscal conservatives. The money printing has been relentless, and the yellow metal's price merely reflects this quaint old definition of "inflation."
To ask the question if 2012 is 1980 all over again answers the question as to why returning to gold is imperative. The nightmarish economic outcomes caused by being, as Jim Grant says, on a "PhD standard" demand change, and more people realize it each and every day.
Fiat paper, whose use is mandated by the state, is the PhDs' money; while gold, with a value derived from trade, is the people's money.
The people want their money back from the ivory tower — before it's too late.
The
Rational Argumentator