Pakistan Implodes
The wars going on in the Middle East
will soon be the entire world’s next war as the fanatic Islamists throughout
the region threaten to take over Pakistan and Afghanistan
while continuing to wage war in Iraq.
If they’re successful, India will be dragged into the full-scale battle against
the Taliban and al Qaeda. Where it spreads from there is anyone’s guess.
It is a battle between the seventh century of Islam and the
twenty-first century of the rest of the world. It is a battle between men who
believe that Allah demands it, and they are prepared to spend as much time as
necessary to achieve victory.
It is a battle in which the United States has been an unwilling
participant for a very long time. The jihadists drew blood in Beirut, Lebanon
during the Reagan years in the 80s and again when they blew up two U.S. embassies
in Africa during the Clinton years. Tellingly, it included an
abortive effort to destroy the Twin
Towers in 1993.
After September 11, 2001, Americans applauded the vigorous
response of the Bush administration in Afghanistan, but in point of fact al
Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri easily moved across
the border into Pakistan, and intelligence services believe they have been
there ever since.
This enemy senses serious weakness in the new President.
Obama has chosen Afghanistan,
the worst place to fight a war, as his new “front” while at the same time
announcing he is withdrawing U.S.
troops from Iraq.
The increase of bombings in Iraq
is no accident. It is an al Qaeda calling card. The worst of the news is the
potential collapse of Pakistan
as Taliban factions acquire more and more territory in what has always been a
very poor excuse for a nation.
As Pakistan’s
leading English-language newspaper, Dawn, recently said in an editorial, “…the
Taliban are no longer a threat, but a grotesque reality,” noting that “The writ
of the government weakens by the hour, while the terrorists are steadily
emboldened. Yet the state and its institutions—including the military—have so
far shown an appalling lack of commitment or wherewithal to force back the
swarm.”
This is a newspaper in a Muslim nation, written by Muslims,
who call the Taliban “grotesque.” And they should know! The editorial warned
that, “The time in which to turn back the tide is fast running out.”
One of the most brilliant analysts of Middle Eastern affairs
is Walid Phares, the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation
for the Defense of Democracies. “As the U.S. administration and its allies
are devising a new strategy for the next steps in Afghanistan, the jihadists have
already begun their next move—but this time it’s inside Pakistan.”
“If Washington and its allies fail to see the big picture in
the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda,” wrote Phares, “which unfortunately
may be the case now, the rapidly deteriorating situation will soon exceed the
northwestern provinces of Pakistan to spill over to both Afghanistan and
India.”
Simply put, you cannot negotiate with the Taliban or al
Qaeda. Their promises mean nothing because they operate under taqiyya, an Arab/Muslim term that
terrorism expert, Douglas Farah tells us is “embraced by radical Islamists. It
blesses the concept of disguising one’s beliefs, intentions, convictions,
ideas, feelings, opinions or strategies from the enemy and the infidel.”
“In practical terms,” says Farah, “it is manifested as
dissimulation, lying, deceiving, vexing and confounding with the intention of
deflecting attention, foiling or pre-emptive blocking.”
In an excellent Policy Analysis published by the Cato
Institute on April 13, Malou Innocent shared her observations after having
recently returned from a fact-finding trip to Pakistan.
Just how bad is the situation there? All of the seven tribal
agencies administered by the Pakistan
government are either under the de facto control or threatened by the Taliban
movement. A recent truce between the government and the Taliban is of no real
substance and should not be treated as such. As Ms. Innocent notes, “the
military agreed not to launch operations without consulting tribal elders…(but)
the army is more inclined to fight India, not a civil war within its borders.”
That is extremely bad news, but Pakistan has been a nation of
extremes since it came into being after breaking away from the newly
independent India
in 1947 to become an Islamic state. The army—currently some 600,000
soldiers—has been the only stable element and has provided a number of
presidents or rulers via coups.
Elements within the government such as its intelligence
service have leaned favorably toward the Taliban and al Qaeda. Even so, “U.S. officials
acknowledge, however, that the Pakistani government has captured more
terrorists and committed more troops than almost any other nation in the ‘war
on terror’.”
In its urban, modern cities and areas, there appears to be a
genuine desire for real democracy, but the Taliban threatens to drag Pakistan back
to the seventh century in its quest for a new caliphate. While the nation has
remained focused on war with India
since its founding, the real threat has always been the growth of
fundamentalist Islam and it now poses the potential overthrow of the
government.
Should that government fail, you will watch India go to
full battle-ready status. Afghanistan’s government will likely fail despite the
presence of U.S./NATO forces, and the momentum to continue the jihad into all
the nations of the region would pose a grave threat to the West. It could only
be solved only by combat.
And the question everyone is wondering, if not asking, is
whether Barack Obama will make the tough decisions necessary to keep Pakistan from
falling to the Taliban or is willing, as George W. Bush was, to drive out a
tyrannical regime?
_________
Alan Caruba writes a
daily blog at http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com
and a weekly commentary at http://www.anxietycenter.com,
the website of The National Anxiety Center.
© Alan Caruba, May
2009
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